This is the main theme of my work. Disruption always comes from unexpected places, frequently from two guys in a garage who change the world (Google, Apple, HP and more). The disruption of the retail business should have come from WalMart or Target, not an upstart book seller (in a garage) in Seattle. The disruption of the taxi industry should have come from Yellow Cab, not a Silicon Valley tech company and the disruption of the automobile business should have come from Toyota or GM, not am immigrant from South Africa who knew nothing about cars.
When faced with disruption, few industries know how to react. Some deny the threat is real, others try to have their competition made illegal (music or the funeral business). Most double down and refuse to make the necessary changes that will help them survive.
Kodak and Xerox should today be as powerful and wealthy as amazon, Google or Apple. They didn't recognize the threats to their business and today are irrelevant.
My talk shows businesses or citizens (depending on the audience) how to recognize when disruption has arrived. and how they can survive being torn apart from disruptive change. Issues of understanding competition and, most especially, providing leadership are central.
This talk looks at Ai as the largest (and perhaps most important) development in disruption by placing it in the context of previous change.
My Center has created and runs the longest and most important study of the long term effects of digital technology in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Internet_Project
This talk examines where digital technology came from and how the world began to adapt to web pages, e-mail and especially broadband. The introduction of social media, on-line commerce and smart phones led to daily life being dramatically changed. Today, there is not an industry or activity that has not been affected by digital technology and most have been transformed. Land-line phones, phone books, encyclopedias, pocket calendars, calculators, personal cameras, newspapers, Walkmen and more are just some of the things that quickly became obsolete. Business such as retail, video, music and travel bear little resemblance to what they were 20 years ago.
With all these changes have come extraordinarily positive change (easier access to libraries and information, empowerment) as well as worrisome trends, especially from social media (misinformation, divisiveness). How are these themes likely to play out? How will Artificial intelligence with its great promise as well as serious threats to employment and, possible humankind's existence) change the world.
Twenty years ago 90% of all television viewing was in three places (ABC, CBS, NBC) and everyone watched on a big screen that used to be 25 inches and today, in most homes, exceeds 50 inches. Occasionally we saw a movie in the theatre but most films were viewed by DVDs or pay-TV. Everything has changed.
Netflix invented the streaming business and gave us quality entertainment (their own and fro other studios) at a costs far below cable (which has never recovered). Just before COVID, Disney, Apple got into the streaming business and followed later by HBO, Paramount and Peacock). Today consumers have to decide how many of these streamers they will pay for it's looking a lot like cable).
And, if ever movie theaters were going to disappear it was during COVID when all theaters closed, we got out of the habit of going to the movies and ever]n our grandparents learned how to stream. Top Gun: Maverick showed their was areal love of going to the theater, but day we are weary of super hero movies, sequels with Roman numerals in the title and boring stories, usually much longer than they need to be.
This talk looks at how the changes in the entertainment industry from the perspective of the consumer. How to know what to watch or see and how to keep cable and streaming costs in check .
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